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Analysis & reasoning by tipster Daniel Nielsen:
Match Expectation:
Portugal enters this match as the clear favorite, but can they live up to that expectation?
Slovenia’s Defensive Tactic:
Slovenia has demonstrated throughout the group stage that they prioritize a solid defense over offensive flair. They played to a 0-0 draw with England, and 1-1 draws with both Scotland and Croatia, indicating their focus on defensive organization and limited offensive risk.
Low Shot Statistics:
In their match against England, which ended 0-0, Slovenia had just one shot on target. This clearly indicates their tendency to create few chances, especially against stronger opponents. Against Portugal, who boast a strong defense, a similar approach with few shots on target is expected.
Expected Match Flow:
Portugal is expected to dominate possession and control the tempo of the match. This will reduce Slovenia’s time on the ball and their ability to build attacks, further limiting their shots on target.
Few Shots Expected from Slovenia:
Slovenia’s tendency to play cautiously and their low number of shots on target in previous matches support the argument that they will struggle to break through Portugal’s defense and create more than 2-3 shots on target.
Motivation and Game Strategy:
Slovenia will likely focus on keeping Portugal from scoring and hope to capitalize on a rare chance through counterattacks or set pieces. Their primary objective will be to avoid conceding goals, meaning their offensive output will be limited.
Conclusion:
Based on Slovenia’s defensive tactics, their low shot statistics in the group stage, Portugal’s defensive strength, the expected match flow with Portuguese dominance, and Slovenia’s game strategy, there is a high probability that Slovenia will have few shots on target in the match against Portugal. Therefore, I am betting on Slovenia to score 0 goals at odds of 1.71.