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Analysis & reasoning by tipster Daniel Nielsen:
Lyngby and FC Copenhagen (FCK) have had vastly different preparations for the upcoming season. The biggest blow for Lyngby is the departure of their coach, David Nielsen, who turned the team’s fortunes around and instilled a winning culture. Personally, I believe he is one of the best coaches in Denmark and could improve any team in the country.
Team Preparation and Preseason Matches:
Lyngby:
Without David Nielsen, Lyngby has had a dreadful preseason. They have played 3 friendly matches with the following results:
- Lyngby – Hillerød Fodbold 0-3
- Lyngby – Hvidovre IF 0-4
- Lyngby – Malmö FF 0-2
It’s extremely concerning that they lost so heavily and failed to score a single goal. Two of the teams they lost to are 1st division clubs, which they should at least be competitive against.
FC Copenhagen:
FCK’s preseason has been mixed but much better:
- Tirol – FC Copenhagen 0-5
- FC Copenhagen – Hillerød Fodbold 0-1
- FC Copenhagen – Silkeborg IF 1-0
There is a clear difference in quality, and FCK has been very active in the transfer market, bringing in a new goalkeeper and a Mexican full-back, among others. Their goal is clear: to reclaim the Danish championship.
Betting Tip: Lyngby Not to Score
Odds: 2.47
Explanation:
- Lyngby’s Poor Form: Lyngby’s inability to score against lower-division teams is alarming. Their lack of offensive prowess makes it unlikely they will find the net against a much stronger FCK side.
- FCK’s Defensive Strength: Despite a mixed preseason, FCK’s defense should be solid enough to keep a clean sheet against a struggling Lyngby attack.
- Value Bet: The odds of 2.47 offer great value. I would rate the likelihood of Lyngby not scoring as close to 50/50, making this an excellent value bet.
Conclusion:
Given Lyngby’s poor preseason form and inability to score against weaker opposition, betting on them not to score against FCK at odds of 2.487 is a solid choice. Despite this being the first game of the season, which can sometimes lead to unpredictable outcomes, the odds provide significant value given the current form and preparations of both teams.