Get Social
Analysis & reasoning by tipster Daniel Nielsen:
Previous Matches and Card Statistics:
France’s previous matches in the Euros haven’t seen many cards. They have received 3 cards so far, one of which was to Mbappe for a non-playing incident. Belgium has received 5 cards, but 3 of them came in their first match. This suggests that both teams have had games with relatively few cards.
Referee Statistics:
Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg has one of the lowest card averages in European football. He is known for being conservative with card issuance and has given out 3 and 2 cards in his two Euro matches. His tendency to miss many cards increases the likelihood that this match will also have few cards.
Expected Match Character:
On paper, France vs. Belgium looks to be one of the best Round of 16 matches, but past experiences show that such games can be tactical and cautious. For example, the group stage match between the Netherlands and France ended 0-0 with only one card issued. This suggests we might see a game where both teams focus more on avoiding mistakes than playing physically.
Team Playing Styles:
Both France and Belgium have technically skilled players who prefer to play with the ball rather than making hard tackles. This playing style reduces the chances of many cards being issued in the match.
Motivation and Discipline:
In a knockout match like this, players will be very aware of the risk of yellow cards, as it could lead to suspension in later rounds. This awareness can lead to more disciplined play and fewer fouls resulting in cards.
Previous Refereed Matches at Euros:
Glenn Nyberg has already officiated two matches at this Euro, issuing 3 cards in the match between Albania and Spain and only 2 cards in the match between Romania and Ukraine. This further supports his tendency to keep cards in his pocket.
Conclusion:
Based on previous matches and card statistics, the referee’s low card average, the expected tactical nature of the match, the playing styles of both teams, the motivation and discipline of the players, and the referee’s past performances at the Euros, there is a high likelihood that the match between France and Belgium will have under 3.5 cards. Therefore, I see good value in betting on under 3.5 cards at odds of 2.30.