On Tuesday evening, England and Slovenia face each other in the final group match of EURO 2024. The situation is clear: England has already advanced to the next round, while Slovenia desperately needs at least one point to have a chance to progress. This setup significantly impacts the dynamics and tactics of the match.

England’s Disciplined Play

England’s discipline and fair play have been remarkable in their first two group matches. In the opening game against Serbia, England received no cards, and in the match against Denmark, they received only one card. This demonstrates Gareth Southgate’s team’s controlled and disciplined approach to the game, avoiding unnecessary fouls.

Motivation and Playing Style

Since England has already advanced, we can expect them to play with lower intensity to avoid injuries and unnecessary cards. Southgate might also choose to rotate some of his players and give playing time to those who have not featured much yet. This is likely to result in a more relaxed game, focusing on possession and control rather than aggressive tackling.

Market Evaluation

It’s worth noting that the odds on Expekt for England to receive under 1.5 cards in the match are set at 1.90, which is significantly higher than the rest of the market. This offers good value as other bookmakers assess the probability of England receiving 2+ cards as higher, reflected in their lower odds for the under bet. Other bookmakers offer the following odds for the same bet:

• Bet365 odds: 1.66
• Spreadex odds: 1.66

Conclusion

Based on England’s performances so far in the tournament, their motivations and playing style, and the attractive odds on Expekt, betting on under 1.5 cards for England is a sensible and value-rich decision. The likelihood that England will continue their disciplined style and avoid many cards in this match is high.